Scottish Independence…?

Living in Scotland and being a conservative I can actually remember the days when I delivered leaflets and we actually were wining the occasion seat north of Hawick. Then when we lost to Labour and wiped out in Scotland. But then came the the Scottish Parliament and under proportional representation we were able to get a small but significant number of MSP's in Edinburgh. Labour became the largest party with a minority government.

I often wondered why the Labour government in London set up an elected body that would never ever have a single arty majority. It would be virtually impossible to have more than 51% of the seats under our electoral system. Now I have finally worked it out.

The SNP (Scottish Nationalist Party) are going to be the largest party after the May elections. They are left wing, but have one policy that frightens me. A voting choice for the Scottish people – Do you want to be independent? This is a question that the Scottish people would probably say yes to. In part because the Executive has been such a mess in so many areas.

Lets assume for a moment that this would lead to an independent Scotland and the essential break up of the United Kingdom. But it would not – see later.

Labour in London would loose two things. Firstly the sixty odd Member’s of Parliament. Toney Blair was I think the first Labour leader ever to be elected to the post of Prime Minister without the power of those Scottish MP’s.

Secondly the next Labour Leader and by default Prime Minister Gorden Brown due to take over in May of next year is Scottish from a Scottish seat along with most of the senor positions in his next cabinet.

So with a Conservative Party rising in the poles, England and Wales with Northern Ireland would become a one party sate for the Conservatives.

Okay so without a working majority in the Scottish Parliament could the SNP force a vote in the Scottish Parliament to make Scotland independent following a yes in the referendum? No – not without other party support.

All the other parties would oppose such a vote based on where they currently stand. Except perhaps one – the most unlikely but the with the most to gain.

The Conservatives.

I saw an article last week in a very upmarket magazine written by an ex conservative arguing for just such an event. An independent Scotland.

Am I in favour of such a thing? In all honesty I do not know. My business is basically at the moment a Scottish one, but most if not all of our future growth will be in England. I have an address south of the border, and when it comes time to decide if I want to live in Scotland or England for personal reasons I do not want to give up my British Passport, so would probably choose to live in London until it was all over and then come back to Scotland as a Sassenach. (Scottish word for outsider).

There will be plenty of time later to argue over the economic reasons both for and against the creation of an independent Scotland. Long live the Conservative England will be a rallying call in the near future…

Mark.